Canada’s Liberal Party and Prime Minister Mark Carney are projected to stay in power as the country digs in on Trump’s trade war

Canadian voters backed Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party on Monday, the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. projects, in a national election strongly influenced by President Donald Trump.

The CBC said it was too early to know whether the Liberals would win enough seats to form a majority government, but it projected another term for the party, which has governed Canada for almost a decade.

Pierre Poilievre, leader of the opposition Conservatives, conceded defeat early Tuesday and congratulated Carney, describing the projected Liberal victory as a “razor-thin minority government.”

Poilievre thanked voters who cast ballots for Conservatives but said “we are cognizant of the fact that we didn’t quite get over the finish line.” He said that Conservatives would hold the government to account.

Only a few months ago, Poilievre seemed poised to be the next leader of Canada amid public frustration with soaring inflation, rising immigration and what was criticized as then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s overly conciliatory approach to Trump, then the president-elect.

Trudeau announced his resignation Jan. 6, two weeks before Trump was inaugurated as president in the United States, after polls showed him struggling with voters.

Since he returned to office, however, Trump has enraged Canadians with his behavior toward one of his country’s closest allies. His policies and rhetoric — including imposing steep tariffs on Canadian imports and promoting a quixotic plan to make Canada the 51st U.S. state — became the central issue in the Canadian election and helped the Liberals make a remarkable turnaround, closing an almost 20-point gap with the Conservatives in a matter of weeks.

The Liberals were also boosted by a candidate, Carney, who may be uniquely positioned to respond to Trump and the global economic uncertainty his tariffs have created.

Like Trump, Carney had never held elected office before becoming his country’s leader and spent much of his life in the private sector. He became prime minister last month after he was elected leader of the Liberal Party, then quickly called a snap election in the hope of securing a full term.

Carney, 60, is also a former central banker used to dealing with economic crises, having run the Bank of Canada after the 2008 global financial crisis and the Bank of England during the Brexit process.

He touted that experience during the campaign, which lasted 37 days.

“Mark offers the proven leadership and real plan we need to deliver change for our party and our country, and to build the strongest economy in the G7,” his campaign said, referring to the Group of Seven industrialized nations.

Poilievre had been on a rising trajectory until earlier this year, with his “Trump light” style embraced by the populist wing of his party. As Canadian anger grew, however, his similarities with Trump began to work against him.

Poilievre ran on job opportunities and on promises that Gen Z voters would be able to afford housing, leveraging public fatigue with the Liberal government. At a rally Sunday, the CBC quoted him as calling the Trudeau government “the lost Liberal decade of rising crime, chaos, drugs and disorder.”

Trump continued goading Canada on Monday as voters went to the polls, saying again that it should become the “cherished” 51st U.S. state.

“ALL POSITIVES WITH NO NEGATIVES. IT WAS MEANT TO BE!” he said on his Truth Social platform. 

Both Carney and Poilievre rebuked Trump over such comments and others he has made about the Canadian election.

“They can become divided and weak,” Carney said in a video on social media Monday, speaking of the United States. “But this is Canada. And we decide what happens here.”

Poilievre wrote Monday on X: “President Trump, stay out of our election.”

“The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box,” he wrote. “Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state.”

One voter said he voted Liberal because Poilievre “sounds like mini-Trump to me.” Reid Warren, of Toronto, told The Associated Press that tariffs were also a concern.

“Canadians coming together from, you know, all the shade being thrown from the States is great, but it’s definitely created some turmoil, that’s for sure,” Warren said.

Trump did not appear to have publicly commented on the election result as of late Monday, but his predecessor congratulated Carney and the Liberals.

“I’m confident Mark will be a strong leader for the fundamental values and interests Canadians and Americans share,” former President Joe Biden said in a post on X.