Democrats turn solidly red state Senate seat blue—for first time ever
Democrats on Tuesday lodged a massive upset in a Republican-held state Senate district in Pennsylvania, flipping a seat that Donald Trump carried by 15 points and sending a massive warning sign to Republicans that the 2026 midterms could be brutal for their party.
Democratic nominee James Andrew Malone, mayor of East Petersburg, defeated Republican Josh Parsons, 50-49, to become the first Democrat to ever win this seat in Lancaster County, according to the Downballot.
Malone won by focusing the race on co-President Elon Musk, whose destructive effort to downsize the federal government is extremely unpopular and hurting critical government functions like Social Security benefits, weather reporting, medical research, public health and more.
Malone told Lancaster Online in the days before the election that his campaign was hearing “concerns from thousands of voters over Musk’s work with the Trump administration to reshape the federal government.”
“Josh Parsons might be OK with that but I’m not,” Malone told the outlet. “On Tuesday, you’ll get to make the choice between more Musk, or Lancaster values.”
Before the election, right-wing activist Scott Presler—who helped Trump’s campaign in the state in 2024—was sounding alarm bells about the race.
“Pennsylvania, we are currently losing this special election. The democrats could potentially flip this State Senate seat from [Red to Blue],” Presler wrote in a post on X on March 20. “I’m very disappointed that Republicans aren’t taking special elections seriously. I can’t do everything.”
And after the GOP officially lost the race on Tuesday, he tweeted: “I asked for help in Pennsylvania & no one helped us. 482 votes,” referring to the margin of the Democratic win in the contest.
The GOP loss could be a canary in the coal mine for Republicans in critical upcoming elections in Florida, where two special elections will be held to fill the vacant seats of former Reps. Matt Gaetz, who resigned Congress in disgrace, and Mike Waltz, who resigned to become CIA director.
Republicans were already worried about the race to replace the now beleaguered Waltz, as the Republican nominee is being badly outraised and early turnout looks strong for Democrats.
And Republicans were expressing those fears before the 16-point shift in the Pennsylvania state Senate race.
Like Malone, the Democratic nominee in that Florida race, Josh Weil, is making Musk a key topic.
“Elon Musk wants you to believe Social Security is a Ponzi scheme. Maybe that’s what happens when you spend too much time around real ones,” Weil wrote in a post on X. “It’s only a Ponzi scheme if they take away all of the money you invested in it.”
Ultimately, special elections have been going well for Democrats after Trump’s unfortunate win in 2024.
Democrats overperformed in two state legislative races in Virginia in January, before Trump even took office. And later in January, after Trump took office, Democrats flipped a state Senate seat in a deep red district in Iowa.
Special election performance is a good indicator for how successful a party will be in an upcoming election. Ahead of the 2018 midterms, Democrats were posting strong special election performances before they went on to post sweeping House victories to retake control of the chamber for the first time in nearly a decade.
Musk himself said it best as he reacted to his party’s Tuesday loss:
“Damn,” Musk wrote in a post on X.
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